Government agencies benefit from all forms of technologies.
This assumes we are living in a world where the US government has the ability to fund far out biomedical research that’s not benefitial to big pharma or another group that can lobby for it.
In reality the US government isn’t even able to stock enough masks for a pandemic. I’d love to live in a world where the US government would be able to fund science purely for the sake of scientific discovery independent from any interest groups but there’s no reason to believe that’s the world in which we are living.
Nukes are deterrents. That’s the only reason to invest in them.
Again you fail to point out what time and which actors you are talking about which suggest not having a good model.
If we look at the US government, the US government pretended for a long time that only the president can order nuclear strikes while giving that ability to a bunch of military commanders and setting the nuclear safety codes to 00000000.
If the only reason you invest in nukes is deterrence it makes no sense to have more people able to lunch nukes then the other side knows about. In that world the US government would have no reason to set the safety codes to 00000000 when ordered by congress to have safety codes.
You might also watch the Yes, Prime Minister episode about nuclear deterence for more reasons (while it’s exaggerted comedy, they did a lot of background research and talked to people inside the system about how the UK political system really worked at the time).
Most comments on here are just pure conjectures by people with mostly ML background. I can’t say I’m educated enough to make these wild guesses on what it’s like in 2040
I have enough expertise to make wild guesses about the future to have been paid for that. In the past I was invited by people funded by my government as an expert to participate in a scenario planning excercise that involved models scenario about medical progress.
johnswentworth whom you replied to earns his money studying the history of progress and how it works, so is someone who has a fairly detailed model of how scientific progress works and isn’t just someone who just has a ML background that’s relevant.
LessWrong isn’t a random Reddit forum. It’s no place where it’s a safe assumption that the people you are talking to don’t have relevant experience to talk about what they are talking about.
This assumes we are living in a world where the US government has the ability to fund far out biomedical research that’s not benefitial to big pharma or another group that can lobby for it.
In reality the US government isn’t even able to stock enough masks for a pandemic. I’d love to live in a world where the US government would be able to fund science purely for the sake of scientific discovery independent from any interest groups but there’s no reason to believe that’s the world in which we are living.
Again you fail to point out what time and which actors you are talking about which suggest not having a good model.
If we look at the US government, the US government pretended for a long time that only the president can order nuclear strikes while giving that ability to a bunch of military commanders and setting the nuclear safety codes to 00000000.
If the only reason you invest in nukes is deterrence it makes no sense to have more people able to lunch nukes then the other side knows about. In that world the US government would have no reason to set the safety codes to 00000000 when ordered by congress to have safety codes.
You might also watch the Yes, Prime Minister episode about nuclear deterence for more reasons (while it’s exaggerted comedy, they did a lot of background research and talked to people inside the system about how the UK political system really worked at the time).
I have enough expertise to make wild guesses about the future to have been paid for that. In the past I was invited by people funded by my government as an expert to participate in a scenario planning excercise that involved models scenario about medical progress.
johnswentworth whom you replied to earns his money studying the history of progress and how it works, so is someone who has a fairly detailed model of how scientific progress works and isn’t just someone who just has a ML background that’s relevant.
LessWrong isn’t a random Reddit forum. It’s no place where it’s a safe assumption that the people you are talking to don’t have relevant experience to talk about what they are talking about.