Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds:
I think that world GDP growth increasing significantly from its current rate is something which could happen years before, OR YEARS AFTER, transformative AI. Or anything in between. I think it is a poor proxy for what we care about and that people currently go astray on several occasions when they rely on it too heavily. I think this goes for timelines, but also for takeoff speeds: GDP growth doubling in one year before it doubles in four years is a bad proxy for fast vs. slow takeoff.
Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds: I think that world GDP growth increasing significantly from its current rate is something which could happen years before, OR YEARS AFTER, transformative AI. Or anything in between. I think it is a poor proxy for what we care about and that people currently go astray on several occasions when they rely on it too heavily. I think this goes for timelines, but also for takeoff speeds: GDP growth doubling in one year before it doubles in four years is a bad proxy for fast vs. slow takeoff.