I have a real hard time deciding how seriously I should take this survey.
The halo effect for doing anything around awesome people like are found in a selected group of Lesswrongians is probably pretty strong. I fear at least some of the participants may have mixed up being with awesome people with becoming awesome. Don’t get me wrong being with awesome people in of itself will work … for a while, until you leave that group.
I’m not that sceptical of the claims, but from the outside its hard to tell the difference between this scenario and the rationality camps working as intended.
You’re right to suspect that this could have happened. That said: I was a mini-camp participant, and I actually became more awesome as a result. Since mini-camp, I’ve:
used Fermi calculations (something we practiced) to decide to graduate from school early.
started making more money than I had before.
started negotiating for things, which saved me over $1000 this summer.
begun the incredibly fucking useful practice of rejection therapy, which multiplied my confidence and caused the above two points.
rapidly improved my social abilities, including the easily measurable ‘success with women’ factor. This was mostly caused by a session about physical contact by Will Ryan, and from two major improvements in wardrobe caused by the great and eminent lukeprog (in whose name I just donated). I wasn’t bad at social stuff before—this was a step from good to great.
resolved my feelings about a bad relationship, mostly as a result of boosted confidence from increased social success.
I stuck around in California for the summer, and gained a lot from long conversations with other SIAI-related people. The vigor and insight of the community was a major factor in showing me how much more was possible and helping me stick to plans I initiated.
But, that said—the points listed above appear to be a direct result of the specific things I learned at mini-camp.
I suspect that it’s precisely because of concerns like these that they didn’t present these numbers until now. It’s hard to see what other evidence they could have for the efficacy of the “minicamp” at this stage.
(Edited to replace “bootcamp” with “minicamp” as per wedrified’s correction)
Don’t get me wrong being with awesome people in of itself will work … for a while, until you leave that group.
I’m not that sceptical of the claims, but from the outside its hard to tell the difference between this scenario and the rationality camps working as intended.
Indeed. SIAI is conducting a year-later follow up which should provide the information needed to differentiate. Answering that question now is probably not possible to the degree of certainty required.
Yes; what I meant by “success” was more like a successful party or conference; Luke pulled off an event that nearly all the attendees were extremely glad they came to, gave presentations that held interest and influenced behavior for at least the upcoming weeks, etc. It was successful enough that, when combined with Luke’s other accomplishments, I know we want Luke, for his project-completion, social effectiveness, strategicness, fast learning curves, and ability to fit all these qualities into SingInst in a manner that boosts our overall effectiveness. I don’t mean “Minicamp definitely successfully created new uber-rationalists”; that would be a weird call from this data, given priors.
Sure, but Konkvistador’s post is about how the survey might be contaminated by awesome-people-halo-effect, not that we shouldn’t be calling it a success. That’s a separate concern addressed elsewhere. My post was addressing how we would tell the difference between “working” and “near awesome people”.
I have a real hard time deciding how seriously I should take this survey.
The halo effect for doing anything around awesome people like are found in a selected group of Lesswrongians is probably pretty strong. I fear at least some of the participants may have mixed up being with awesome people with becoming awesome. Don’t get me wrong being with awesome people in of itself will work … for a while, until you leave that group.
I’m not that sceptical of the claims, but from the outside its hard to tell the difference between this scenario and the rationality camps working as intended.
You’re right to suspect that this could have happened. That said: I was a mini-camp participant, and I actually became more awesome as a result. Since mini-camp, I’ve:
used Fermi calculations (something we practiced) to decide to graduate from school early.
started making more money than I had before.
started negotiating for things, which saved me over $1000 this summer.
begun the incredibly fucking useful practice of rejection therapy, which multiplied my confidence and caused the above two points.
rapidly improved my social abilities, including the easily measurable ‘success with women’ factor. This was mostly caused by a session about physical contact by Will Ryan, and from two major improvements in wardrobe caused by the great and eminent lukeprog (in whose name I just donated). I wasn’t bad at social stuff before—this was a step from good to great.
resolved my feelings about a bad relationship, mostly as a result of boosted confidence from increased social success.
I stuck around in California for the summer, and gained a lot from long conversations with other SIAI-related people. The vigor and insight of the community was a major factor in showing me how much more was possible and helping me stick to plans I initiated.
But, that said—the points listed above appear to be a direct result of the specific things I learned at mini-camp.
I suspect that it’s precisely because of concerns like these that they didn’t present these numbers until now. It’s hard to see what other evidence they could have for the efficacy of the “minicamp” at this stage.
(Edited to replace “bootcamp” with “minicamp” as per wedrified’s correction)
Indeed. SIAI is conducting a year-later follow up which should provide the information needed to differentiate. Answering that question now is probably not possible to the degree of certainty required.
That’s exactly the complaint though—many people have described it as a success, before the data is available.
I think people are seeing drastically different things in the word ‘success’.
Yes; what I meant by “success” was more like a successful party or conference; Luke pulled off an event that nearly all the attendees were extremely glad they came to, gave presentations that held interest and influenced behavior for at least the upcoming weeks, etc. It was successful enough that, when combined with Luke’s other accomplishments, I know we want Luke, for his project-completion, social effectiveness, strategicness, fast learning curves, and ability to fit all these qualities into SingInst in a manner that boosts our overall effectiveness. I don’t mean “Minicamp definitely successfully created new uber-rationalists”; that would be a weird call from this data, given priors.
Sure, but Konkvistador’s post is about how the survey might be contaminated by awesome-people-halo-effect, not that we shouldn’t be calling it a success. That’s a separate concern addressed elsewhere. My post was addressing how we would tell the difference between “working” and “near awesome people”.