Are you assessing that the rate of false accusations from an individual is correlated positively, negatively, or not at all with the rate of actual rapes experienced by those individuals?
Do you model the probability of an individual experiencing abuse as random, negatively correllated with prior abuse, or positively correllated with prior abuse?
Does adjusting these priors affect the assessment you made above?
Questions about priors:
Are you assessing that the rate of false accusations from an individual is correlated positively, negatively, or not at all with the rate of actual rapes experienced by those individuals?
Do you model the probability of an individual experiencing abuse as random, negatively correllated with prior abuse, or positively correllated with prior abuse?
Does adjusting these priors affect the assessment you made above?
Relevant: http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/10/02/different-worlds/ section three paragraph 7 on serial abuse victims. There’s probably more to say, but I think that some combinations of answers to the above questions lend support to the OP.