In general, one has to be careful as to whether a possible prediction market resolution would have the implications that you think.
My immediate concern here is whether blatantly violating what US regulators consider to be the law regarding crypto would lead to felony charges even in the absence of directly causing losses to investors.
See Matt Levine’s Mar 27 column (which discusses the CFTC lawsuit) as an example of at least the general theme (I don’t know what sort of things would lead to felony charges, though).
In general, one has to be careful as to whether a possible prediction market resolution would have the implications that you think.
My immediate concern here is whether blatantly violating what US regulators consider to be the law regarding crypto would lead to felony charges even in the absence of directly causing losses to investors.
See Matt Levine’s Mar 27 column (which discusses the CFTC lawsuit) as an example of at least the general theme (I don’t know what sort of things would lead to felony charges, though).
You’re probably right that a more directly relevant criterion could be tried. So here is a prototype series, starting with the 3 biggest exchanges.