So the $1 million of damage is only inflicted in the hypothetical you know not to exist, however, due to the symmetry reality is “the hypothetical that doesn’t exist” for the other hypothetical.
Oh, I’m pretty sure it’s harder than you think. You may want to reread the wording of the scenario. It was written with this kind of viewpoint in mind and that’s why it is different from the counterfactual mugging.
The wording of the scenario does not actually say that Omega tells me the details, but I assume that Omega does, otherwise to me Omega is just a random stranger begging a dollar.
So, in the scenario as stated, no-one is ever punished, whatever I do. Therefore I refuse. I might give to a beggar, but not to a con artist. My hypothetical other self does not exist to be punished, and as my hypothetical other self’s hypothetical other self, I don’t get punished either, because that hypothetical other self never existed for Omega to make the demand to and exert retribution on me for refusal. Every route to me getting punished goes through my non-existent alter.
Then Omega correctly predicts that you wouldn’t have paid if the coin had come up the other way, and punishes you.
Note: I am using the word “correct” in the sense that you have literally just told us that you wouldn’t have paid if the coin had come up the other way, and it makes no sense to claim anything about “that case regarding the other possibility for the coin is just a hypothetical” since the entire thing being discussed is a hypothetical.
In more detail:
Within the outer hypothetical of this scenario happening at all, Omega’s prediction about the coin-alternative hypothetical is a fact (not a hypothetical) that you are not aware of, but can predict with very high success rate. It is very highly correlated with the output of your decision process, though not caused by the output of your decision process. Both the prediction and the output have a common cause. If your decision process is anywhere near as legible (to Omega) as you state it to be, and results in the output you state, then it will result in you being punished, and this punishment should be highly predictable to you in advance.
However, you have stated that you do not predict punishment, so there is something wrong with your decision process.
However, you have stated that you do not predict punishment, so there is something wrong with your decision process.
Or perhaps with my understanding of the original problem, or its wording. At this point I am not clear who knows what when, and who gets punished under what circumstances.
Honestly, I’ve probably made it more confusing by editing the wording as I go. One thing that might make it easier is the dot points I’ve now added in my post that describe the situation step-by-step. I wish I’d thought of including that at the start.
Thanks for mentioning that. It’s a good catch. I’ve updated the wording to explicitly mention that it tells you and when I get to my laptop I’ll edit in a proper timeline at the end as that might reduce any confusion.
I don’t believe that the last sentence holds and so I believe Omegas punishment goes through.
Yes, reality is the hypothetical that doesn’t exist for the other hypothetical, but the other hypothetical doesn’t exist, so I don’t care. “Man, that was easy. You guys have any harder ones?” :)
Oh, I’m pretty sure it’s harder than you think. You may want to reread the wording of the scenario. It was written with this kind of viewpoint in mind and that’s why it is different from the counterfactual mugging.
The wording of the scenario does not actually say that Omega tells me the details, but I assume that Omega does, otherwise to me Omega is just a random stranger begging a dollar.
So, in the scenario as stated, no-one is ever punished, whatever I do. Therefore I refuse. I might give to a beggar, but not to a con artist. My hypothetical other self does not exist to be punished, and as my hypothetical other self’s hypothetical other self, I don’t get punished either, because that hypothetical other self never existed for Omega to make the demand to and exert retribution on me for refusal. Every route to me getting punished goes through my non-existent alter.
Then Omega correctly predicts that you wouldn’t have paid if the coin had come up the other way, and punishes you.
Note: I am using the word “correct” in the sense that you have literally just told us that you wouldn’t have paid if the coin had come up the other way, and it makes no sense to claim anything about “that case regarding the other possibility for the coin is just a hypothetical” since the entire thing being discussed is a hypothetical.
In more detail:
Within the outer hypothetical of this scenario happening at all, Omega’s prediction about the coin-alternative hypothetical is a fact (not a hypothetical) that you are not aware of, but can predict with very high success rate. It is very highly correlated with the output of your decision process, though not caused by the output of your decision process. Both the prediction and the output have a common cause. If your decision process is anywhere near as legible (to Omega) as you state it to be, and results in the output you state, then it will result in you being punished, and this punishment should be highly predictable to you in advance.
However, you have stated that you do not predict punishment, so there is something wrong with your decision process.
Or perhaps with my understanding of the original problem, or its wording. At this point I am not clear who knows what when, and who gets punished under what circumstances.
Honestly, I’ve probably made it more confusing by editing the wording as I go. One thing that might make it easier is the dot points I’ve now added in my post that describe the situation step-by-step. I wish I’d thought of including that at the start.
Thanks for mentioning that. It’s a good catch. I’ve updated the wording to explicitly mention that it tells you and when I get to my laptop I’ll edit in a proper timeline at the end as that might reduce any confusion.
I don’t believe that the last sentence holds and so I believe Omegas punishment goes through.