I think Zvi would also bet against the market if that happened. If he thinks the probability is 50% and the market is offering 38%, that’s a great bet.
He’s completely consistent in that he puts the probabilities of these events between the markets and Nate (which inevitably means betting against the market in the direction of the models)
Oh, duh. I got confused there, but you’re right that there’s no inconsistency to explain.