Musk proposition gives Ukraine no significant security guarantees AND forces it to lose territory. It’s basically a total win for Russia, and an excellent incentive to try again in 10 years (or maybe vs. the Baltic states or Georgia).
The Baltic states don’t have areas where Russia would gain anything from them having a referendum to join Russia because nobody would vote “Yes”. The Baltic states are protected by NATO. Even for those who considered the argument about the Baltic states reasonable before the latest invasion the performance of the Russian army should clearly suggest that any violation of NATO borders is a bad idea for Russia.
It’s difficult to hold territory against the wishes of the local population and produces all sorts of internal problems. The Wikileaks cable is really interesting in that it regards the Russian foreign policy crowd as wanting to avoid having to act within Ukraine.
The present Georgian situation seems to be fine for Russia without a need to do something about it. From one article:
With Georgia unlikely to join either NATO or the EU any time soon, Moscow may be increasingly resigned to, and accepting of, Tbilisi nonetheless remaining outside its foreign policy orbit. Indeed, some in Moscow argue that Russia’s recognition of both breakaways was a mistake, in that it left Tbilisi with no strategic choice save the prospect of Western integration. “If we had recognised only South Ossetia, Russia could still have traded off the fate of Abkhazia”, one expert said. The present situation may not seem ideal when seen through Russia’s eyes, but it appears to be acceptable.
As far as Ukraine goes, Ukraine can improve its military as well over the next ten years. Clearing the reasons why the Russian public wanted this war is a way to reduce incentives for another invasion as well.
Musk proposition gives Ukraine no significant security guarantees AND forces it to lose territory. It’s basically a total win for Russia, and an excellent incentive to try again in 10 years (or maybe vs. the Baltic states or Georgia).
The Baltic states don’t have areas where Russia would gain anything from them having a referendum to join Russia because nobody would vote “Yes”. The Baltic states are protected by NATO. Even for those who considered the argument about the Baltic states reasonable before the latest invasion the performance of the Russian army should clearly suggest that any violation of NATO borders is a bad idea for Russia.
It’s difficult to hold territory against the wishes of the local population and produces all sorts of internal problems. The Wikileaks cable is really interesting in that it regards the Russian foreign policy crowd as wanting to avoid having to act within Ukraine.
The present Georgian situation seems to be fine for Russia without a need to do something about it. From one article:
As far as Ukraine goes, Ukraine can improve its military as well over the next ten years. Clearing the reasons why the Russian public wanted this war is a way to reduce incentives for another invasion as well.
I don’t think this is important. Results of referendums in occupied Ukrainian territories (Crimea 2014 referendum not included) are falsified anyway.
We are talking about whether an Elon Musk-style peace deal that involves an independent referendum would be good.
I think that it’s very unlikely that it would motivate Russia to attack the Baltic states.