I do think there’s a lot that could be said about the object level of the conflict in Ukraine and Russia.
In general, I feel like the desire to have short condensed answers to big conflicts like that does not help with actually understanding what’s going on at a deeper level.
If you want something short, it’s something like: “War is a zero-sum game that destroys a lot of utility, therefore it’s good to end the war as soon as possible.”
I am happy with longer explanations, if you have the time. To be more specific about the kind of things I’m interested in:
Do you think Ukrainian forces are able to launch a campaign into Crimea?
Do you think Russian forces are able to respond in time?
If Russian forces do respond in time, do you think they will provide effective resistance?
In my model these kinds of questions tend to have a much bigger impact on diplomatic decisions than rhetorical or propaganda ones, and the recent history of the war has generated a lot more uncertainty about them through Russia’s surprising underperformance.
I don’t think that I have strong insight into the on-the-ground military battle. That said, Crimea isn’t an island but a peninsula, which means there is a landbridge. As such I would expect that it depends on the number of weapons and other support that the West provides whether or not Ukraine will be able to launch a campaign into Crimea.
If anyone has read any analysis that suggests otherwise, I would be happy to see it, and given that my own assessment rests on little information there’s a good chance that it might change my mind.
What are your thoughts about the object level of the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, and what bearing do you think they have on the Crimea question?
I do think there’s a lot that could be said about the object level of the conflict in Ukraine and Russia.
In general, I feel like the desire to have short condensed answers to big conflicts like that does not help with actually understanding what’s going on at a deeper level.
If you want something short, it’s something like: “War is a zero-sum game that destroys a lot of utility, therefore it’s good to end the war as soon as possible.”
I am happy with longer explanations, if you have the time. To be more specific about the kind of things I’m interested in:
Do you think Ukrainian forces are able to launch a campaign into Crimea?
Do you think Russian forces are able to respond in time?
If Russian forces do respond in time, do you think they will provide effective resistance?
In my model these kinds of questions tend to have a much bigger impact on diplomatic decisions than rhetorical or propaganda ones, and the recent history of the war has generated a lot more uncertainty about them through Russia’s surprising underperformance.
I don’t think that I have strong insight into the on-the-ground military battle. That said, Crimea isn’t an island but a peninsula, which means there is a landbridge. As such I would expect that it depends on the number of weapons and other support that the West provides whether or not Ukraine will be able to launch a campaign into Crimea.
If anyone has read any analysis that suggests otherwise, I would be happy to see it, and given that my own assessment rests on little information there’s a good chance that it might change my mind.