Unsure how much we disagree Zach and Oliver so I’ll try to quantify: I would guess that Claude 3 will cut release date of next gen models from OpenAI by a few months at least (I would guess 3 months), which has significant effects on timelines.
Tentatively, I’m thinking that this effect may be surlinear. My model is that each new release increases the speed of development (bc of increased investment in all the value chain including compute + realization from people that it’s not like other technologies etc) and so that a few months now causes more than a few months on AGI timelines.
Unsure how much we disagree Zach and Oliver so I’ll try to quantify: I would guess that Claude 3 will cut release date of next gen models from OpenAI by a few months at least (I would guess 3 months), which has significant effects on timelines.
Tentatively, I’m thinking that this effect may be surlinear. My model is that each new release increases the speed of development (bc of increased investment in all the value chain including compute + realization from people that it’s not like other technologies etc) and so that a few months now causes more than a few months on AGI timelines.