Why do you attribute this largely to the rise of prediction markets? My perception is that news outlets started citing prediction markets roughly when they became an effective vehicle for hard-to-regulate sports gambling, I don’t think this has ~anything to do with the 2016 election, and indeed, directly following that election, significantly prior to the rise in cultural salience of prediction markets, data scientists and pollsters were in crisis for several months trying to figure out why the polls were so wrong. They did a much better job in the 2018 midterms and this is certainly not attributable to prediction markets, rather to directly addressing the methodological gaps in polling that had recently become salient.
Why do you attribute this largely to the rise of prediction markets? My perception is that news outlets started citing prediction markets roughly when they became an effective vehicle for hard-to-regulate sports gambling, I don’t think this has ~anything to do with the 2016 election, and indeed, directly following that election, significantly prior to the rise in cultural salience of prediction markets, data scientists and pollsters were in crisis for several months trying to figure out why the polls were so wrong. They did a much better job in the 2018 midterms and this is certainly not attributable to prediction markets, rather to directly addressing the methodological gaps in polling that had recently become salient.