I think a primary question I want an answer to here was what went so wrong with OpenPhil’s attempt to fund superforecasters on AI questions—why they were eg so much wronger than either of myself or Paul about the probability of a 2025 IMO gold medal win, as wrong (wronger?) than Holden Karnofsky on AGI timelines, etc. Do we know what went wrong? Is it fixable? Has it been fixed?
The most well-funded prediction markets in human history did not seem to think either Nvidia or OpenAI was worth particularly much before 2022. Might these just be rare things to anticipate if you are not literally at the eye of the storm?
The most well-funded prediction markets in human history did not seem to think either Nvidia or OpenAI was worth particularly much before 2022. Might these just be rare things to anticipate if you are not literally at the eye of the storm?