Sorry for the late reply but I have an anecdotal example: myself. I’m a lawyer by trade and there’s no way I would have been able to get involved with Epoch AI had it not been for me being one of the best Metaculus forecasters. The most notable thing I did was writing How Fast Could Robotics Production Scale Up? with JS Denain.
I know some of the top forecasters have worked for hedge funds although their backgrounds may have helped there? Not very knowledgeable about this and it’s possible that you’re right overall and it’s anecdotal but there’s at least one example.
Did you look at the report? I know the title is very forecasting related but most of it is not forecasting unless you consider all of the research and data collection as purely forecasting. I don’t think that’s the same thing even if there’s overlap in the skills, I wouldn’t consider what OWID does with their data collection (not the opinion articles) as forecasting. Here we did mix both but the report has value in itself without the forecasting part, imo.
Sorry for the late reply but I have an anecdotal example: myself. I’m a lawyer by trade and there’s no way I would have been able to get involved with Epoch AI had it not been for me being one of the best Metaculus forecasters. The most notable thing I did was writing How Fast Could Robotics Production Scale Up? with JS Denain.
I know some of the top forecasters have worked for hedge funds although their backgrounds may have helped there? Not very knowledgeable about this and it’s possible that you’re right overall and it’s anecdotal but there’s at least one example.
No offense, but your example is using a track record in forecasting to get a job where you post forecasts. I asked about success in other areas.
Did you look at the report? I know the title is very forecasting related but most of it is not forecasting unless you consider all of the research and data collection as purely forecasting. I don’t think that’s the same thing even if there’s overlap in the skills, I wouldn’t consider what OWID does with their data collection (not the opinion articles) as forecasting. Here we did mix both but the report has value in itself without the forecasting part, imo.