Side question, but you had recently moved your AGI median from 2027 to 2028 after updating on Grok 3 and GPT-4.5. Has this changed, especially with Gemini 2.5 and o3/o4-mini + these new METR datapoints?
I think I’ll wait and see what the summer looks like and then do another update to my timelines. If indeed the horizon length trend is accelerating already, it’ll be clear by the summer & my timelines will shorten accordingly.
Thanks for the clarification.
Side question, but you had recently moved your AGI median from 2027 to 2028 after updating on Grok 3 and GPT-4.5. Has this changed, especially with Gemini 2.5 and o3/o4-mini + these new METR datapoints?
I think I’ll wait and see what the summer looks like and then do another update to my timelines. If indeed the horizon length trend is accelerating already, it’ll be clear by the summer & my timelines will shorten accordingly.