Isn’t it kinda unreasonable to put 10% on superhuman coder in a year if current AIs have a 15 nanosecond time horizon? TBC, it seems fine IMO if the model just isn’t very good at predicting the 10th/90th percentile, especially wiht extreme hyperparameters.
Yeah I guess I think this is probably wrong. Perhaps one way to frame this would be that we would think there was a much lower chance of aggressive superexponentiality if we started at a lower time horizon, so we are sort of hardcoding the superexponentiality parameters to the current time horizon. This might not be the only issue though.
Yeah I guess I think this is probably wrong. Perhaps one way to frame this would be that we would think there was a much lower chance of aggressive superexponentiality if we started at a lower time horizon, so we are sort of hardcoding the superexponentiality parameters to the current time horizon. This might not be the only issue though.