At the very least this concedes that the estimates are not based on trend-extrapolation and are conjecture.
Yes, as I told you verbally, I will edit the relevant expandable to make this more clear. I agree that the way it’s presented currently is poor.
Here are two charts demonstrating that small changes in estimates of current R&D contribution and changes in R&D speedup change the model massively in the absence of a singularity.
These are great, this parameter is indeed at least a bit more important that I expected. I will make this more clear in the writeup, and will think a little more about what the median value should be (it’s very relevant for looking into the original bet offer anyway :)).
Yes, as I told you verbally, I will edit the relevant expandable to make this more clear. I agree that the way it’s presented currently is poor.
These are great, this parameter is indeed at least a bit more important that I expected. I will make this more clear in the writeup, and will think a little more about what the median value should be (it’s very relevant for looking into the original bet offer anyway :)).