I’m interested in any other analysts like zeihan who folks find predictive enough to track. Current favorites of mine are Beau of the Fifth Column, Perun, AI Explained, Nate Hagens, Daniel Schmachtenberger, Security in Context, Heather Cox Richardson, Big Red Celt, Paul Beckwith. (Typos possible, but all are YouTube channels.)
BeauTFC, though he’s retired; his wife Belle now runs the channel, and does reasonably close to as well, often having interestingly detailed predictions about dynamics of the situation in the USA.
And Perun, who continues to have detailed and specific predictions and be rarely wrong.
The others: AI Explained has also felt like he lost depth of insight. I haven’t kept up with Schmachtenberger, Hagens, Security in Context, Paul Beckwith. Heather Cox Richardson continue to be interesting, though I don’t follow her work. Paul Beckwith has a pretty narrow focus on climate dynamics, I would be surprised if his quality of work has degraded in that area.
I previously had the sense that he was finding things others wouldn’t. Now I don’t. I stopped following him because of this. I briefly opened recent stuff from him and immediately felt like what he was saying was highly optimized for attention-grabbing-ness, so I immediately closed it; it’s possible he’s restored depth by the standards I had, but I don’t need hype news—he previously stood out for being measured, which is one of the traits that makes someone interesting to me. But this isn’t an objective judgement, it’s all based on approximate feature matches in my brain somewhere.
Prior coverage (october) where they gave reasoning and stated this seemed plausible (among several other possible outcomes, all of which are pretty specific): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_EuX0YJKvE
I’m interested in any other analysts like zeihan who folks find predictive enough to track. Current favorites of mine are Beau of the Fifth Column, Perun, AI Explained, Nate Hagens, Daniel Schmachtenberger, Security in Context, Heather Cox Richardson, Big Red Celt, Paul Beckwith. (Typos possible, but all are YouTube channels.)
Out of these, who is your top pick?
BeauTFC, though he’s retired; his wife Belle now runs the channel, and does reasonably close to as well, often having interestingly detailed predictions about dynamics of the situation in the USA.
And Perun, who continues to have detailed and specific predictions and be rarely wrong.
The others: AI Explained has also felt like he lost depth of insight. I haven’t kept up with Schmachtenberger, Hagens, Security in Context, Paul Beckwith. Heather Cox Richardson continue to be interesting, though I don’t follow her work. Paul Beckwith has a pretty narrow focus on climate dynamics, I would be surprised if his quality of work has degraded in that area.
Thanks!
“AI Explained has also felt like he lost depth of insight”
What makes you say that?
I previously had the sense that he was finding things others wouldn’t. Now I don’t. I stopped following him because of this. I briefly opened recent stuff from him and immediately felt like what he was saying was highly optimized for attention-grabbing-ness, so I immediately closed it; it’s possible he’s restored depth by the standards I had, but I don’t need hype news—he previously stood out for being measured, which is one of the traits that makes someone interesting to me. But this isn’t an objective judgement, it’s all based on approximate feature matches in my brain somewhere.
...eg,
Current events: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2C9pYzEZ64
Prior coverage (october) where they gave reasoning and stated this seemed plausible (among several other possible outcomes, all of which are pretty specific): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_EuX0YJKvE