Interestingly, Laplace rule gives almost exactly the same equation as Gott’s Doomsday argument. The small difference is that Laplace is 1 / (N + 2), and Gott’s is 1 / (N ). The difference is probably arising from how we count first and last days of the sequence.

Interestingly, Laplace rule gives almost exactly the same equation as Gott’s Doomsday argument. The small difference is that Laplace is 1 / (N + 2), and Gott’s is 1 / (N ). The difference is probably arising from how we count first and last days of the sequence.