anaguma comments on When is it important that open-weight models aren’t released? My thoughts on the benefits and dangers of open-weight models in response to developments in CBRN capabilities.

[anaguma]

COVID killed around 30 million people, and I think open-weight models at this level of capability would increase the chance of such pandemics by somewhat more than 0.1% per year.

How did you arrive at 0.1%? This seems too low to me.