Tangential, but I really appreciate your explicit cost-effectiveness estimate figures ($85-105k per +1% increment in win prob & 2 basis points x-risk reduction if he wins → $4-5M per basis point which looks fantastic vs the $100M per basis point bar I’ve seen for a ‘good bet’ or the $3.5B per basis point ballpark willingness to pay), just because public x-risk cost-eff calculations of this level of thoroughness are vanishingly rare (nothing Open Phil publishes approaches this for instance). So thanks a million, and bookmarked for future reference on how to do this sort of calculation well for politics-related x-risk interventions.
Tangential, but I really appreciate your explicit cost-effectiveness estimate figures ($85-105k per +1% increment in win prob & 2 basis points x-risk reduction if he wins → $4-5M per basis point which looks fantastic vs the $100M per basis point bar I’ve seen for a ‘good bet’ or the $3.5B per basis point ballpark willingness to pay), just because public x-risk cost-eff calculations of this level of thoroughness are vanishingly rare (nothing Open Phil publishes approaches this for instance). So thanks a million, and bookmarked for future reference on how to do this sort of calculation well for politics-related x-risk interventions.