I think yes—strong beliefs from a single event that contains a fair bit of randomess is generally a mistake. The author’s labeling of “fool” and “wise men” is likewise a red herring, to show us that our initial evaluation is also a mistake.
The only successful strategy in the parable is the one taken by “the superiors”—send other people into your fights, perhaps some will succeed.
They seems to have a model where “good riding skill” is the only thing that determines the outcome. Specifically, their model has no place for luck.
That’s their mistake in the case of the fools, but is the claim that they’re also making it in the case of the wise men?
I think yes—strong beliefs from a single event that contains a fair bit of randomess is generally a mistake. The author’s labeling of “fool” and “wise men” is likewise a red herring, to show us that our initial evaluation is also a mistake.
The only successful strategy in the parable is the one taken by “the superiors”—send other people into your fights, perhaps some will succeed.