Unless your expectation is that your counterparty’s chosen charity has negligible effectiveness (for good or bad) relative to yours, it seems to me that this calculation is unlikely to be the one you actually want to do.
Great point! I think this is often the case for bets between people who do or don’t consider effectiveness in choosing charities, or where people have sufficiently strong value disagreements that each thinks of the other’s charity as neutral, but you’re right that this is unusual.
Great point! I think this is often the case for bets between people who do or don’t consider effectiveness in choosing charities, or where people have sufficiently strong value disagreements that each thinks of the other’s charity as neutral, but you’re right that this is unusual.