Yeah… so one of my problems with the post is that it presents itself as an exhortation to apply ironclad rationalist thought:
>when the tribal flags come out, you suit up. Operational definitions. Base rates. 48-hour restraint on attribution. Public updates when you’re wrong. The whole apparatus of rationalist epistemics applied to the domain where motivated reasoning runs hottest.
but when I present the data I did in my original comment, you show yourself to be overfocused on what’s possible, at the expense of what is likely.
I think the essence of rationalist practice is to be good at reasoning under uncertainty, and part of that is integrating multiple pieces of evidence. One can attack any single datum: certainly there is a possibility “Bella Ciao” was written in with a niche meme in mind, rather than an Anti-Facist idea. But “Catch, Facist!” was also written. Certainly anyone can date a trans person; but it’s more likely for a left-aligned person to than a right-aligned one, due to the right’s clear distaste for the trans movement, and the left’s clear support. These items, in conjunction with what Robinson’s mother said about his shift to the left, together, are really quite suggestive.
Against these data, there is the hypothesis that actually Robinson is on the far Right. This hypothesis requires the FBI to have fabricated or edited the messages, and further, for them to make it so the roommate does not ever say “hey, that’s not what he sent me”. It also requires Robinson’s mother to be badly wrong, lying, or for the quote from her to be misattributed or made up. I don’t think these things are likely.
This overfocus of yours on what is possible, instead of what’s likely, is partisan-driven, not “the whole apparatus of rationalist epistemics” you frame the post as.
I’m sorry that I didn’t make it more clear but the reason I didn’t update is because the information you presented me was stuff I already knew and had factored into my original calculations. That’s why I already had a response ready.
Yeah… so one of my problems with the post is that it presents itself as an exhortation to apply ironclad rationalist thought:
>when the tribal flags come out, you suit up. Operational definitions. Base rates. 48-hour restraint on attribution. Public updates when you’re wrong. The whole apparatus of rationalist epistemics applied to the domain where motivated reasoning runs hottest.
but when I present the data I did in my original comment, you show yourself to be overfocused on what’s possible, at the expense of what is likely.
I think the essence of rationalist practice is to be good at reasoning under uncertainty, and part of that is integrating multiple pieces of evidence. One can attack any single datum: certainly there is a possibility “Bella Ciao” was written in with a niche meme in mind, rather than an Anti-Facist idea. But “Catch, Facist!” was also written.
Certainly anyone can date a trans person; but it’s more likely for a left-aligned person to than a right-aligned one, due to the right’s clear distaste for the trans movement, and the left’s clear support.
These items, in conjunction with what Robinson’s mother said about his shift to the left, together, are really quite suggestive.
Against these data, there is the hypothesis that actually Robinson is on the far Right. This hypothesis requires the FBI to have fabricated or edited the messages, and further, for them to make it so the roommate does not ever say “hey, that’s not what he sent me”. It also requires Robinson’s mother to be badly wrong, lying, or for the quote from her to be misattributed or made up. I don’t think these things are likely.
This overfocus of yours on what is possible, instead of what’s likely, is partisan-driven, not “the whole apparatus of rationalist epistemics” you frame the post as.
I’m sorry that I didn’t make it more clear but the reason I didn’t update is because the information you presented me was stuff I already knew and had factored into my original calculations. That’s why I already had a response ready.