I wouldn’t say that inner optimizers are about the consequences of pure predictive accuracy optimization; the two are orthogonal. An inner optimizer can pop up in optimizers which optimize for things besides predictive accuracy, and predictive accuracy optimization can be done in ways which don’t give rise to inner optimizers. Contrast that to the other failure modes discussed in the post, which are inherently about predictive accuracy—e.g. the assassination markets problem.
I wouldn’t say that inner optimizers are about the consequences of pure predictive accuracy optimization; the two are orthogonal. An inner optimizer can pop up in optimizers which optimize for things besides predictive accuracy, and predictive accuracy optimization can be done in ways which don’t give rise to inner optimizers. Contrast that to the other failure modes discussed in the post, which are inherently about predictive accuracy—e.g. the assassination markets problem.
OK, yeah, that’s fair.