Do you know like the streets you see tend to be more crowded, airplanes have more seats taken, more people in restaurants on average from your observations, compared with how they actually are on average?
You are mixing together situations where a person can be correctly approximated as a random sample from some population with situation where it’s not the case.
What mainstream anthropic reasoning is doing is assuming that this model has to always be the same in every situation and then trying to bite ridiculous bullets when it predictably leads to bizarre conclusions.
You are mixing together situations where a person can be correctly approximated as a random sample from some population with situation where it’s not the case.
What we need to do is look at every situation trying to come up with an appropriate probabilistic model that describes it to the best of our knowledge. A map that fits the territory.
What mainstream anthropic reasoning is doing is assuming that this model has to always be the same in every situation and then trying to bite ridiculous bullets when it predictably leads to bizarre conclusions.