The solution to this isn’t to reject the very useful concept of belief (which is already generally used to mean “probability 1 minus epsilon” by many people), but to
get people to see the fatal error in preparing for only the most probable outcome each time, and
convince them it’s sometimes OK to be unsure about which branch of a disjunction holds.
It looks like I agree with you but disagree with your original post. What’s the problem with saying we believe Bayes’ Theorem, and clarifying if asked that we ascribe probability 1 minus epsilon to it?
The rest of your post is of value, but the “You can’t believe in Bayes’ Theorem” hook goes awry.
The solution to this isn’t to reject the very useful concept of belief (which is already generally used to mean “probability 1 minus epsilon” by many people), but to
get people to see the fatal error in preparing for only the most probable outcome each time, and
convince them it’s sometimes OK to be unsure about which branch of a disjunction holds.
Yes. Belief is still useful. It’s mainly in situations where a low-probability outcome has a high cost or benefit that it causes problems.
It looks like I agree with you but disagree with your original post. What’s the problem with saying we believe Bayes’ Theorem, and clarifying if asked that we ascribe probability 1 minus epsilon to it?
The rest of your post is of value, but the “You can’t believe in Bayes’ Theorem” hook goes awry.
Fair enough.