It looks like I agree with you but disagree with your original post. What’s the problem with saying we believe Bayes’ Theorem, and clarifying if asked that we ascribe probability 1 minus epsilon to it?
The rest of your post is of value, but the “You can’t believe in Bayes’ Theorem” hook goes awry.
Yes. Belief is still useful. It’s mainly in situations where a low-probability outcome has a high cost or benefit that it causes problems.
It looks like I agree with you but disagree with your original post. What’s the problem with saying we believe Bayes’ Theorem, and clarifying if asked that we ascribe probability 1 minus epsilon to it?
The rest of your post is of value, but the “You can’t believe in Bayes’ Theorem” hook goes awry.
Fair enough.