the impact of new Blackwell chips with improved computation
It’s about world size, not computation, and has a startling effect that probably won’t occur again with future chips, since Blackwell sufficiently catches up to models at the current scale.
But even then, OpenAI might get to ~$25bn annualized revenue that won’t be going away
What is this revenue estimate assuming?
The projection for 2025 is $12bn at 3x/year growth (1.1x per month, so $1.7bn per month at the end of 2025, $3bn per month in mid-2026), and my pessimistic timeline above assumes that this continues up to either end of 2025 or mid-2026 and then stops growing after the hypothetical “crash”, which gives $20-36bn per year.
Thanks, I got to say I’m a total amateur when it comes to GPU performance. So will take the time to read your linked-to comment to understand it better.
It’s about world size, not computation, and has a startling effect that probably won’t occur again with future chips, since Blackwell sufficiently catches up to models at the current scale.
The projection for 2025 is $12bn at 3x/year growth (1.1x per month, so $1.7bn per month at the end of 2025, $3bn per month in mid-2026), and my pessimistic timeline above assumes that this continues up to either end of 2025 or mid-2026 and then stops growing after the hypothetical “crash”, which gives $20-36bn per year.
Thanks, I got to say I’m a total amateur when it comes to GPU performance. So will take the time to read your linked-to comment to understand it better.