Thanks, I might be underestimating the impact of new Blackwell chips with improved computation.
I’m skeptical whether offering “chain-of-thought” bots to more customers will make a significant difference. But I might be wrong – especially if new model architectures would come out as well.
And if corporations throw enough cheap compute behind it plus widespread personal data collection, they can get to commercially very useful model functionalities. My hope is that there will be a market crash before that could happen, and we can enable other concerned communities to restrict the development and release of dangerously unscoped models.
But even then, OpenAI might get to ~$25bn annualized revenue that won’t be going away
the impact of new Blackwell chips with improved computation
It’s about world size, not computation, and has a startling effect that probably won’t occur again with future chips, since Blackwell sufficiently catches up to models at the current scale.
But even then, OpenAI might get to ~$25bn annualized revenue that won’t be going away
What is this revenue estimate assuming?
The projection for 2025 is $12bn at 3x/year growth (1.1x per month, so $1.7bn per month at the end of 2025, $3bn per month in mid-2026), and my pessimistic timeline above assumes that this continues up to either end of 2025 or mid-2026 and then stops growing after the hypothetical “crash”, which gives $20-36bn per year.
Thanks, I got to say I’m a total amateur when it comes to GPU performance. So will take the time to read your linked-to comment to understand it better.
Thanks, I might be underestimating the impact of new Blackwell chips with improved computation.
I’m skeptical whether offering “chain-of-thought” bots to more customers will make a significant difference. But I might be wrong – especially if new model architectures would come out as well.
And if corporations throw enough cheap compute behind it plus widespread personal data collection, they can get to commercially very useful model functionalities. My hope is that there will be a market crash before that could happen, and we can enable other concerned communities to restrict the development and release of dangerously unscoped models.
What is this revenue estimate assuming?
It’s about world size, not computation, and has a startling effect that probably won’t occur again with future chips, since Blackwell sufficiently catches up to models at the current scale.
The projection for 2025 is $12bn at 3x/year growth (1.1x per month, so $1.7bn per month at the end of 2025, $3bn per month in mid-2026), and my pessimistic timeline above assumes that this continues up to either end of 2025 or mid-2026 and then stops growing after the hypothetical “crash”, which gives $20-36bn per year.
Thanks, I got to say I’m a total amateur when it comes to GPU performance. So will take the time to read your linked-to comment to understand it better.