Maybe? I am not saying the dichotomy is common-knowledge, but I feel pretty confident predicting which capacity-building work will be quite bad in-expectation and which will be quite good (this doesn’t mean there isn’t variance within those categories with many orgs or people having sign-flipped impact from their reference class, but that I am happy to register predictions at the class level with like reasonably-high confidence).
I would then like to know which is which (DM is okay if you feel that would be somewhat controversial, it’s also alright if you want to keep your opinions to yourself)
Sorry, I am not saying there is a classifier here that is like one sentence long. At a high level I think “is it largely funneling people into places where the incentives will point towards building more powerful AI systems and/or becoming personally more powerful, or is it putting people into positions where their primary incentives are to help other people make sense of what is going with some grounding in accuracy of their beliefs” is the best short classifier I have, but I didn’t intend to communicate there is some super short description of the classifier!
Maybe? I am not saying the dichotomy is common-knowledge, but I feel pretty confident predicting which capacity-building work will be quite bad in-expectation and which will be quite good (this doesn’t mean there isn’t variance within those categories with many orgs or people having sign-flipped impact from their reference class, but that I am happy to register predictions at the class level with like reasonably-high confidence).
I would then like to know which is which (DM is okay if you feel that would be somewhat controversial, it’s also alright if you want to keep your opinions to yourself)
Sorry, I am not saying there is a classifier here that is like one sentence long. At a high level I think “is it largely funneling people into places where the incentives will point towards building more powerful AI systems and/or becoming personally more powerful, or is it putting people into positions where their primary incentives are to help other people make sense of what is going with some grounding in accuracy of their beliefs” is the best short classifier I have, but I didn’t intend to communicate there is some super short description of the classifier!
No worries, thanks for elaborating