What are the possible trajectories of an AGI/ASI world?
I am curious to know what people think are the possible trajectories of an AGI/ASI world. If you are brave and want to share relative probabilities that would be interesting.
Some example trajectories:
1) Asimov “utopia”. Robot’s do all the labor, humans are free to leisure and enjoy life. Resources are basically free except for resources that are scarce like land. AI is controlled by a democratic, western authority.
2) AI turns the entire universe into paperclips.
3) AI is controlled by an authoritarian government. Govt kills everyone not deemed valuable or lets them live in some mediocre state of existence. Rebellion and change are impossible.
4) AI is controlled by a few large corporations that are mostly benevolent. They provide a “utopian” world for most people while the corporate owners live the life of the super-wealthy. Not clear to me what the differences between super-wealthy and those on UBI are?
5) Everyone turns into cyborgs, lays in bed all day and moves their mind into the metaverse.
My current favorite is #4, but that’s a transitionary state. Corporations are neither benevolent nor malevolent, they are self-sustaining agent-like actors with somewhat opaque causality behind their actions. Much like AI, for that matter. They will appear benevolent as long as there are sufficient opposing forces that they need the illusion, and then reveal their disinterest when it’s no longer true.
I’d bet on #4.
Or an alternative combo of 3 and 4: e.g., the AI-empowered corporations continue to gain astronomical wealth until they’re largely more powerful than national governments. The process of mergers, acquisitions, and takeovers from AI companies leads to megacorporation oligopolies that control geographic and cyber empires. Incrementally, the economic power of large AI giants begins to encompass geopolitical power—akin to the historical shift from empires to city-states to nation states—and gradually company security debarments become armies, and company leadership, functional authoritarian ASI governments.