this has nothing to do with group-level gene selection: the learnings can be entirely cultural. i’m not arguing that we are genetically predisposed to consider tail risks, rather that existing societies have faced some pressure to [create cultural machinery that effectively aligns their constituents to] care about tail risks.
i don’t expect that many societies would be needed for this, as horizontal meme transfer is easy, and cultures can learn post-mortem from their missing neighbors. see for example the sentinelese, as an existence proof.
I see. I’d frame this more as individuals learning from past societal failures. But to what extent is this happening? The warning of Easter Island seems largely unheeded. Some individuals learn. Whether it’s enough is highly questionable. I don’t see societies putting much effort into this; I can’t even think of a single class on “why civilizations collapse”. Books exist, but that’s not much of a societal-level effort.
But I see what you mean and I agree. Individuals will see examples of this happening and be able to learn from them.
this has nothing to do with group-level gene selection: the learnings can be entirely cultural. i’m not arguing that we are genetically predisposed to consider tail risks, rather that existing societies have faced some pressure to [create cultural machinery that effectively aligns their constituents to] care about tail risks.
i don’t expect that many societies would be needed for this, as horizontal meme transfer is easy, and cultures can learn post-mortem from their missing neighbors. see for example the sentinelese, as an existence proof.
I see. I’d frame this more as individuals learning from past societal failures. But to what extent is this happening? The warning of Easter Island seems largely unheeded. Some individuals learn. Whether it’s enough is highly questionable. I don’t see societies putting much effort into this; I can’t even think of a single class on “why civilizations collapse”. Books exist, but that’s not much of a societal-level effort.
But I see what you mean and I agree. Individuals will see examples of this happening and be able to learn from them.