Thanks for following up! Yeah at some point (perhaps January?) we should do a blog post retrospective enumerating all the forecasts we made in AI 2027 and comparing them to what actually happened. My general sense right now is that progress has been somewhat slower than AI 2027 expected, and even slower than I expected at the time (my median was 2028 at the time) but not dramatically slower. It would be good to quantify this.
Thanks for following up! Yeah at some point (perhaps January?) we should do a blog post retrospective enumerating all the forecasts we made in AI 2027 and comparing them to what actually happened. My general sense right now is that progress has been somewhat slower than AI 2027 expected, and even slower than I expected at the time (my median was 2028 at the time) but not dramatically slower. It would be good to quantify this.