I think you’re right that this is part of where the intuition comes from. But it’s still irrational in a context where you actually know the probabilities accurately enough.
True, but that’s usually very artificial context. Often when someone claims they know the probabilities accurately enough, they are mistaken or lying.
I think you’re right that this is part of where the intuition comes from. But it’s still irrational in a context where you actually know the probabilities accurately enough.
True, but that’s usually very artificial context. Often when someone claims they know the probabilities accurately enough, they are mistaken or lying.