One small suggestion: When I read this, I genuinely couldn’t tell whether “Gray swans: None detected this week” was a joke (like you were pretending to look for literal gray/black swans), or if it meant something serious. After reading your website, my guess is that it’s meant to be serious—but I’m still not sure, and if it is serious then I don’t know what it means. (My understanding is that “black swan” means an unexpected, highly improbable / out of distribution event, so it wasn’t clear to me what it would mean in this context to be generally looking for global gray/black swans.) Might be worth clarifying or finding other terminology, if you want readers like me to quickly grok what you mean.
what it would mean in this context to be generally looking for global gray/black swans
Yes it’s a bit tongue in cheeck, but the point of black swans per Taleb is that they would be so out of distribution that they’d be totally unforeseen. But if you have a foresight team, maybe you can detect some fraction of them beforehand… in which case maybe they were not true black swans after all. Maybe I should just go with “out-of-distribution threats”
One small suggestion: When I read this, I genuinely couldn’t tell whether “Gray swans: None detected this week” was a joke (like you were pretending to look for literal gray/black swans), or if it meant something serious. After reading your website, my guess is that it’s meant to be serious—but I’m still not sure, and if it is serious then I don’t know what it means. (My understanding is that “black swan” means an unexpected, highly improbable / out of distribution event, so it wasn’t clear to me what it would mean in this context to be generally looking for global gray/black swans.) Might be worth clarifying or finding other terminology, if you want readers like me to quickly grok what you mean.
Yes it’s a bit tongue in cheeck, but the point of black swans per Taleb is that they would be so out of distribution that they’d be totally unforeseen. But if you have a foresight team, maybe you can detect some fraction of them beforehand… in which case maybe they were not true black swans after all. Maybe I should just go with “out-of-distribution threats”