I’d bet two karma points against one that you submitted a number you believe has a less-than-average chance of winning this game. You might have submitted a very large number, or you might have submitted 0, confident in the knowledge that 0 will not actually win.
As for whether you claim your submission was rational, I suppose it depends on which answer amuses you more today.
All of your points, although initially quite plausible, become uncertain upon deeper reflection—except the last, which is the best example of reasoning in this thread so far.
I award you one point, and suggest that you think further upon the problem of the paradox of anticipation.
I’d bet two karma points against one that you submitted a number you believe has a less-than-average chance of winning this game. You might have submitted a very large number, or you might have submitted 0, confident in the knowledge that 0 will not actually win.
As for whether you claim your submission was rational, I suppose it depends on which answer amuses you more today.
All of your points, although initially quite plausible, become uncertain upon deeper reflection—except the last, which is the best example of reasoning in this thread so far.
I award you one point, and suggest that you think further upon the problem of the paradox of anticipation.