Amazing post. Meta-level it’s very well argued and good-faith, and object-level these arguments are spot on IMO, especially how you unpacked the details of exactly how his post falls victim to the Multiple Stage Fallacy.
I debated BB a couple days ago for an upcoming episode of Doom Debates, and while I warned him that MSF in complex domains is a huge trap that makes arguments like his almost never work, I wasn’t able to pin down the problem with his stages the way you did here.
I’m really happy with the meta-level quality of BB’s original post and your reply (and with BB’s conduct in our Doom Debate). I wish discourse of this caliber among the various AI x-risk positions was much more common.
Amazing post. Meta-level it’s very well argued and good-faith, and object-level these arguments are spot on IMO, especially how you unpacked the details of exactly how his post falls victim to the Multiple Stage Fallacy.
I debated BB a couple days ago for an upcoming episode of Doom Debates, and while I warned him that MSF in complex domains is a huge trap that makes arguments like his almost never work, I wasn’t able to pin down the problem with his stages the way you did here.
I’m really happy with the meta-level quality of BB’s original post and your reply (and with BB’s conduct in our Doom Debate). I wish discourse of this caliber among the various AI x-risk positions was much more common.