Micron is still my favorite stock pick. Its impressive guidance caused analysts to raise 2026 earnings forecasts by 78%. That seems almost as dramatic as the NVIDIA’s May 2023 guidance which kicked off a 4x return over the next year.
Congrats on a great pick, up another ~50% ytd. What’s your mental model on when to back off on something like Micron? In previous cycles they look classically cheap (ie, high single digit PE based on cycle-high net margins) right before supply catches up to demand and the cycle turns for them. But obviously this cycle may be...well, “different.”
One thing I’m interested in is HBM, which I know is a small part of their revenue now, but seems like it will be expanding (something like exponentially) for years to come.
These trends and how the market will treat them are of course really hard to predict, but you’ve been exceptionally right on Micron so far so I’m very interested in your thoughts.
I don’t have a clear plan for identifying a top. Maybe I’ll get out when political pressure for an AI pause builds. Maybe I’ll see signs that most investors are AGI-pilled, meaning that there are few more investors that might be talked into buying. Maybe rising interest rates will cause me to expect lower PEs everywhere.
I sold about 8% of my position in January, mainly to diversify my AI bets a bit more. I’m guessing I’ll sell an additional 5% each time it goes up another 50 points.
Congrats on a great pick, up another ~50% ytd. What’s your mental model on when to back off on something like Micron? In previous cycles they look classically cheap (ie, high single digit PE based on cycle-high net margins) right before supply catches up to demand and the cycle turns for them. But obviously this cycle may be...well, “different.”
One thing I’m interested in is HBM, which I know is a small part of their revenue now, but seems like it will be expanding (something like exponentially) for years to come.
These trends and how the market will treat them are of course really hard to predict, but you’ve been exceptionally right on Micron so far so I’m very interested in your thoughts.
I don’t have a clear plan for identifying a top. Maybe I’ll get out when political pressure for an AI pause builds. Maybe I’ll see signs that most investors are AGI-pilled, meaning that there are few more investors that might be talked into buying. Maybe rising interest rates will cause me to expect lower PEs everywhere.
I sold about 8% of my position in January, mainly to diversify my AI bets a bit more. I’m guessing I’ll sell an additional 5% each time it goes up another 50 points.