My preferred policy is “we’ll nuke you if you can’t prove you’ve destroyed every cpu above 50m transistors in your territory. This is now your national priority or we launch in two months.” But holy shit is that not on the table, the people who could institute such a policy know how drastic destroying that much good compute is, aren’t convinced robot swarms are doom rather than tools, and have urgent intl conflicts they are constantly preparing for. A nuke threat like that would be difficult to even make believable, to put it lightly.
They’re already looking other directions. Grad student descent takes time and transformers really are quite hard to beat. Most improvements end up turning out to be incremental on top of transformers.
My preferred policy is “we’ll nuke you if you can’t prove you’ve destroyed every cpu above 50m transistors in your territory. This is now your national priority or we launch in two months.” But holy shit is that not on the table, the people who could institute such a policy know how drastic destroying that much good compute is, aren’t convinced robot swarms are doom rather than tools, and have urgent intl conflicts they are constantly preparing for. A nuke threat like that would be difficult to even make believable, to put it lightly.
They’re already looking other directions. Grad student descent takes time and transformers really are quite hard to beat. Most improvements end up turning out to be incremental on top of transformers.