That would make more sense! I of course agree there are some people that could have 10xd their money, though it seems like that will always be the case even when it’s obviously a bad idea to increase exposure to an asset class (e.g. the same is true for crypto, and I don’t think we should have invested more in crypto). The interesting question seems to me to be the question of whether returns were missed out on in-aggregate (as well as what the indirect effects of the exposure have been).
It’s consistent with a small fraction of capital being in AI-related stuff 4-10y ago
If you aggregate human capital (i.e. labor) and financial capital, then at least 4 years ago a very substantial fraction of “our” assets were already going long AI capability companies (by working at those companies, or founding them). It seems clear to me you should aggregate human and financial capital, so I don’t think the current capital allocation is just the result of that capital growing much faster, there had always been a quite serious investment.
I agree that there was a better argument for investing in the space 10 years ago, though calling the market was also substantially harder that far back, even with an AI-focused worldview. I also think the externalities would have been less bad at the time, though I am not that confident about that
That would make more sense! I of course agree there are some people that could have 10xd their money, though it seems like that will always be the case even when it’s obviously a bad idea to increase exposure to an asset class (e.g. the same is true for crypto, and I don’t think we should have invested more in crypto). The interesting question seems to me to be the question of whether returns were missed out on in-aggregate (as well as what the indirect effects of the exposure have been).
If you aggregate human capital (i.e. labor) and financial capital, then at least 4 years ago a very substantial fraction of “our” assets were already going long AI capability companies (by working at those companies, or founding them). It seems clear to me you should aggregate human and financial capital, so I don’t think the current capital allocation is just the result of that capital growing much faster, there had always been a quite serious investment.
I agree that there was a better argument for investing in the space 10 years ago, though calling the market was also substantially harder that far back, even with an AI-focused worldview. I also think the externalities would have been less bad at the time, though I am not that confident about that