I think it’s better to explain to such people the problem where the predictor is perfect, and then generalize to an imperfect predictor. They don’t understand the general principle of your present choices pseudo-overwriting the entire timeline and can’t think in the seemingly-noncausal way that optimal decision-making requires. By jumping right to an imperfect predictor, the principle becomes, I think, too complicated to explain.
I think it’s better to explain to such people the problem where the predictor is perfect, and then generalize to an imperfect predictor. They don’t understand the general principle of your present choices pseudo-overwriting the entire timeline and can’t think in the seemingly-noncausal way that optimal decision-making requires. By jumping right to an imperfect predictor, the principle becomes, I think, too complicated to explain.