I think there’s a dynamic where people who feel more uncertain are less likely to speak up than people who feel less uncertain. I would expect that if you poll people in a LW or EA census then only a minority of the people will answer with >99% doom.
I think there’s a dynamic where people who feel more uncertain are less likely to speak up than people who feel less uncertain. I would expect that if you poll people in a LW or EA census then only a minority of the people will answer with >99% doom.