Thanks for clarifying! Back to your first comment then:
Worlds a) and b) and worlds a) and c) are incomparable from one standpoint because you are still radically clueless about alignment research being good
I’m still not sure I understand, sorry if I’m missing something basic. Let:
(a*) = “recommend donating to alignment research [without doing research about the sign of alignment beforehand]”
(b*) = “recommend not donating [without doing research about the sign of alignment beforehand]”
As you say, Lukas’s argument implies (a) > (b). (Independently of whether (b) ~ (c).) This holds even if (a*) is incomparable with (b*) (that’s precisely Lukas’s point). I don’t see how “you are still radically clueless about alignment research being good” — i.e., (a*) is incomparable with (b*) — tells me that (a) is incomparable with (b) (or that (a) incomp (c)).
Oops yeah, I believe you’re right. I got confused and I thought we had specified a) incomp b) but in reality we had only specified alignment research after a positive update is incomparable to b*).
Thanks for clarifying! Back to your first comment then:
I’m still not sure I understand, sorry if I’m missing something basic. Let:
(a*) = “recommend donating to alignment research [without doing research about the sign of alignment beforehand]”
(b*) = “recommend not donating [without doing research about the sign of alignment beforehand]”
As you say, Lukas’s argument implies (a) > (b). (Independently of whether (b) ~ (c).) This holds even if (a*) is incomparable with (b*) (that’s precisely Lukas’s point). I don’t see how “you are still radically clueless about alignment research being good” — i.e., (a*) is incomparable with (b*) — tells me that (a) is incomparable with (b) (or that (a) incomp (c)).
Oops yeah, I believe you’re right. I got confused and I thought we had specified a) incomp b) but in reality we had only specified alignment research after a positive update is incomparable to b*).