I just noticed a possible slight discrepancy in your numbers. In your post, you say:
Overall, I estimate that a marginal $3,500 donation increases Bores’s chances of winning by a little over 0.01%.
You append footnote 8 to that:
This is slightly larger than the estimate in my original post. That’s because my original estimate put some probability on the race ending up not being close, but the race has continued to look close.
But this estimate is lower than that of your previous post. From your previous post:
My best guess is that a marginal $85,000 donated on Monday, October 20th raises [Bores’] chances of winning by 1%
$85,000 for a 1% increase would mean $3,500 gives you a little bit over a 0.04% increase.
(I didn’t actually downvote but I probably would have if it wasn’t already downvoted). But you were downvoted because of decoupling norms being common among rationalists, where arguments are typically evaluated on their own merits. I agreed with Zac’s point that ControlAI is overestimating their chances and he openly says on his bio that he works at Anthropic.