I think it would be good for more people to explicitly ask political staffers and politicians the question: “What hypothetical eval result would change your mind if you saw it?”
I think a lot of the evals are more targeted towards convincing tech workers than convincing politicians.
My sense is political staffers and politicians aren’t that great at predicting their future epistemic states this way, and so you won’t get great answers for this question. I do think it’s a really important one to model!
I think it would be good for more people to explicitly ask political staffers and politicians the question: “What hypothetical eval result would change your mind if you saw it?”
I think a lot of the evals are more targeted towards convincing tech workers than convincing politicians.
My sense is political staffers and politicians aren’t that great at predicting their future epistemic states this way, and so you won’t get great answers for this question. I do think it’s a really important one to model!
I believe the actual answer is “when it starts automating everything in the real world.”