I would also point out that, I do actually kind of know facts like (1) The population is growing and (2) its like 8 Billion or something, (3) Nuclear weapons are scary. But, I didn’t know my approximate position in the human birth order (how many people have come before), I had to look that up. So its an especially artificial situation, I am not just interpolating based on a tiny subset of the information available, but I am actually seeking out some new information (me in the birth order) and then interpolating based only on that thing I previously didn’t know.
I argued something similar to your position in a recent post. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LhsteuSNFfWRoXBjz/randomness-and-doomsday-for-weak-agents
I would also point out that, I do actually kind of know facts like (1) The population is growing and (2) its like 8 Billion or something, (3) Nuclear weapons are scary. But, I didn’t know my approximate position in the human birth order (how many people have come before), I had to look that up. So its an especially artificial situation, I am not just interpolating based on a tiny subset of the information available, but I am actually seeking out some new information (me in the birth order) and then interpolating based only on that thing I previously didn’t know.