edit: my second prediction means “Russia is 25% likely to stop the invasion, without having captured Kyiv and without having installed a puppet government in Ukraine.”
Why not just go back and actually edit the comment?
Epistemic legibility. LW isn’t a scientific publication, but it is standard practice not to edit published scientific work directly. Instead, new versions and addendums are released. This way, there’s a record of the changes it’s gone through, and if a version gets cited, the person citing it doesn’t look like they misquoted the document if a new version comes out.
Why not just go back and actually edit the comment?
Epistemic legibility. LW isn’t a scientific publication, but it is standard practice not to edit published scientific work directly. Instead, new versions and addendums are released. This way, there’s a record of the changes it’s gone through, and if a version gets cited, the person citing it doesn’t look like they misquoted the document if a new version comes out.