Bayes’ theorem already has a tutorial! However, I think that more common examples than there will improve the page.
For example, “do I really have certain illness” isn’t as resonating as “does someone offend me intentionally”, though the latter is a bit too emotional. I think that “is certain letter fraud” would make a good example—for instance, it contains different pieces of evidence.
Strange—illness resonates with me much more than either of those! I have even wanted to know my odds of having Covid/Flu/Strep after a test, and been annoyed at having to not mix up what “specificity” and “sensitivity” mean and then convert to the actual useful numbers (positive and negative likelihood ratios).
Thus what I would add is an additional input method that takes in sensitivity and specificity.
Bayes’ theorem already has a tutorial! However, I think that more common examples than there will improve the page.
For example, “do I really have certain illness” isn’t as resonating as “does someone offend me intentionally”, though the latter is a bit too emotional. I think that “is certain letter fraud” would make a good example—for instance, it contains different pieces of evidence.
Strange—illness resonates with me much more than either of those! I have even wanted to know my odds of having Covid/Flu/Strep after a test, and been annoyed at having to not mix up what “specificity” and “sensitivity” mean and then convert to the actual useful numbers (positive and negative likelihood ratios).
Thus what I would add is an additional input method that takes in sensitivity and specificity.