I also was interested in this question as it implies different answers about the nature of Occam razor. If the probability (from complexity) function quickly diminish, the simplest outcome is the most probable. However, if this function has a fat tail, its median could be somewhere half way to infinite complexity, which means that most true theories as incredible complex.
How do we choose the correct version of Occam’s razor to use? As always, we use Occam’s razor to give prior probabilities to each possibility (each version of Occam’s razor), then update using real-world observations. There’s a problem of circularity here, of course. I think that the version that humans intuitively use lies in a large region of the space of versions such that if you use one version from the region to choose a new version, and repeat this self-reflection, the process converges.
I also was interested in this question as it implies different answers about the nature of Occam razor. If the probability (from complexity) function quickly diminish, the simplest outcome is the most probable. However, if this function has a fat tail, its median could be somewhere half way to infinite complexity, which means that most true theories as incredible complex.
How do we choose the correct version of Occam’s razor to use? As always, we use Occam’s razor to give prior probabilities to each possibility (each version of Occam’s razor), then update using real-world observations. There’s a problem of circularity here, of course. I think that the version that humans intuitively use lies in a large region of the space of versions such that if you use one version from the region to choose a new version, and repeat this self-reflection, the process converges.