I still think there is a fair chance of [a major terrorist attack] happening before the year is out but odds are a little lower (my estimate of how incompetent most terrorists are has increased a little).
Shouldn’t the odds go down by about half, just because half the year is used up?
The failed Times Square attack raised my probability for attempts at attacks this year but lowered my probability that any attempted attacks would be effective enough to classify as ‘major’. On balance I think the odds of a major attack in the remaining 6 months are lower than 50% at this point but events since my original prediction weigh into my estimate now and so it’s not a simple matter of adjusting the odds based on elapsed time.
Shouldn’t the odds go down by about half, just because half the year is used up?
The failed Times Square attack raised my probability for attempts at attacks this year but lowered my probability that any attempted attacks would be effective enough to classify as ‘major’. On balance I think the odds of a major attack in the remaining 6 months are lower than 50% at this point but events since my original prediction weigh into my estimate now and so it’s not a simple matter of adjusting the odds based on elapsed time.